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How many copies did Terraforming Mars sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 221k–358k
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Terraforming Mars and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Terraforming Mars's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–14k
best case 143k (Dune: Imperium)
Games like Terraforming Mars

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–14k copies

≈ $7k–$71k after Steam's cut

from ~93 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Dune: Imperium at ≈ 109k–178k copies, ≈ $691k–$1.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 32 reviews in their first month; the range was 17 to 1k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Board Game (7 of 8) and Sci-fi (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Board Game + Deckbuilding, priced around $23.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 24k–38k
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
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Dune: Imperium
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47x vs typical
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2021
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$11k–$30k after Steam's cut $21k–$47k before Steam's cut
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83 reviews
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SteamSpy under 20k
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CasualStrategy

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.