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How many copies did The Captain is Dead sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$11k–$30k after Steam's cut $21k–$47k before Steam's cut
from 83 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Captain is Dead and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Captain is Dead's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 92k–5.3M
best case 23.0M (No Man's Sky)
Games like The Captain is Dead

A typical game among these

≈ 92k–5.3M copies

≈ $596k–$54.7M after Steam's cut

from ~69k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.5M–28.5M copies, ≈ $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 2k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (7 of 8) and Space (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

ASTRONEER
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
139k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerOpen World
Terraformers
2023
Est. copies
≈ 93k–151k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$512k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $931k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationProcedural Generation
Space Engineers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.3M–$57.3M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
135k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSandbox
No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.5M–28.5M
6.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
422k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Tharsis
2016
Est. copies
≈ 105k–170k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$431k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $784k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
Board GameSpace
Space Betrayers
2022
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$172–$455 after Steam's cut $312–$700 before Steam's cut
$24.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
Early AccessSocial Deduction
Blink Planets
2022
Est. copies
≈ 223–363
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$551–$1k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before Steam's cut
$8.99
9 reviews
9 user reviews
Early AccessStrategy

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