How much revenue did Cinders make?

$245k–$659k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Cinders sell?

Q: How many copies did Cinders sell?

45k to 72k copies, based on its 796 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 45k–72k; $245k–$659k after Steam's cut $446k–$1.0M before Steam's cut; from 796 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cinders and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cinders's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 613k–684k

best case 1.6M (Volcano Princess)

Games like Cinders

A typical game among these

≈ 613k–684k copies

≈ $3.1M–$4.3M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Volcano Princess at ≈ 1.2M–2.0M copies, ≈ $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 27k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Choices Matter (6 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Dating Sim + Sexual Content, priced around $11.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk 2021	Est. copies ≈ 556k–903k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut	$8.99	22k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Visual Novel
missed messages. 2019	Est. copies ≈ 448k–728k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Free to PlayVisual Novel
Love Is All Around 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	46k reviews Very Positive	Dating SimSexual Content
Life is Strange 2 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.0M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	41k reviews Very Positive	Choices MatterStory Rich
Volcano Princess 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut	$10.99	49k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Life SimMultiple Endings
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	39k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	CyberpunkVisual Novel
The Coffin of Andy and Leyley 2023	Est. copies ≈ 982k–1.6M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.2M–$8.7M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.4M before Steam's cut	$11.99	40k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PsychologicalDark Comedy
Tales from the Borderlands 2021	Est. copies ≈ 486k–790k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.7M–$7.2M after Steam's cut $4.9M–$11.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	20k reviews Very Positive	ComedyAdventure