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How many copies did Grocery Store Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 154k–250k
$633k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.6M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Grocery Store Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Grocery Store Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 29.1M–31.7M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Grocery Store Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 29.1M–31.7M copies

≈ $114.8M–$191.8M after Steam's cut

from ~665k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (5 of 8) and Crafting (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sandbox + Moddable, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Sandbox + Building + PvP; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Phasmophobia
2020
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–33.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut $208.6M–$474.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
842k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Among Us
2018
Est. copies
≈ 22.8M–37.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut $56.8M–$129.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
749k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerSocial Deduction
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 80.0M–130.1M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxModdable
Terraria
2011
Est. copies
≈ 98.5M–160.1M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.6M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Rocket League®
2015
Est. copies
≈ 28.3M–46.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
580k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerFootball (Soccer)
Don't Starve Together
2016
Est. copies
≈ 22.6M–36.8M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
544k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.