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How many copies did GemCraft - Chasing Shadows sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 215k–350k
$592k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GemCraft - Chasing Shadows and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GemCraft - Chasing Shadows's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 35k–91k
best case 94k (GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath)
Games like GemCraft - Chasing Shadows

A typical game among these

≈ 35k–91k copies

≈ $275k–$477k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath at ≈ 71k–116k copies, ≈ $255k–$685k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 855 reviews in their first month; the range was 279 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Tower Defense (8 of 8) and Top-Down (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tower Defense + RTS, priced around $13.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.7x vs typical
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GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath
2020
Est. copies
≈ 71k–116k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$255k–$685k after Steam's cut $463k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$12.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Tower DefenseDifficult
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DwarfColony Sim
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≈ 99k–160k
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Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.