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How many copies did FlatOut 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
$3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$16.0M before Steam's cut
from 22k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid FlatOut 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including FlatOut 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 955k–2.3M
best case 5.0M (Need for Speed™ Heat)
Games like FlatOut 2

A typical game among these

≈ 955k–2.3M copies

≈ $8.1M–$43.1M after Steam's cut

from ~31k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Need for Speed™ Heat at ≈ 3.8M–6.2M copies, ≈ $73.7M–$198.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 267 to 6k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Racing (7 of 8) and Open World (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Open World, priced around $70.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Need for Speed™ Heat
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
5.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$73.7M–$198.2M after Steam's cut $134.0M–$304.9M before Steam's cut
$69.99
154k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Garfield Kart
2015
Est. copies
≈ 691k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$948k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Cult ClassicCombat Racing
Need For Speed: Hot Pursuit
2010
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
20k reviews
Very Positive
RacingCombat Racing
Crossout
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
70k reviews
Mostly Positive
Third PersonGun Customization
Need for Speed™ Unbound
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$29.0M–$77.9M after Steam's cut $52.7M–$119.8M before Steam's cut
$69.99
61k reviews
Mixed
RacingMultiplayer
Need for Speed™ Payback
2020
Est. copies
≈ 806k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.6M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Need for Speed™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 737k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
30k reviews
Mixed
RacingMultiplayer
Need for Speed™ Most Wanted
2020
Est. copies
≈ 699k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
28k reviews
Mostly Positive
RacingMultiplayer

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