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How many copies did Crazy Islands sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$7k–$19k after Steam's cut $13k–$30k before Steam's cut
from 75 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Crazy Islands and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Crazy Islands's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.2M–29.2M
best case 56.0M (Rust)
Games like Crazy Islands

A typical game among these

≈ 5.2M–29.2M copies

≈ $47.0M–$205.3M after Steam's cut

from ~380k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Rust at ≈ 42.7M–69.3M copies, ≈ $469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (8 of 8) and Open World Survival Craft (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Crafting, priced around $40.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
Grounded
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.2M–$70.4M after Steam's cut $47.6M–$108.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Raft
2022
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.8M–43.5M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
779k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
381k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Green Hell
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.4M–$54.8M after Steam's cut $37.0M–$84.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
103k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
The Long Dark
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–6.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$97.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
124k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft

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