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How many copies did Witchfire sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 445k–723k
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.2M before Steam's cut
from 18k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Witchfire and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Witchfire's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.8M–5.5M
best case 10.6M (Hunt: Showdown 1896)
Games like Witchfire

A typical game among these

≈ 2.8M–5.5M copies

≈ $29.5M–$65.1M after Steam's cut

from ~115k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Hunt: Showdown 1896 at ≈ 8.0M–13.1M copies, ≈ $66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 6 to 63k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (5 of 8) and Co-op (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Extraction Shooter, priced around $30.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
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too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
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Early AccessAction Roguelike
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too small to compare
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Warhammer: Vermintide 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.3M
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Co-opDark Fantasy
Hunt: Showdown 1896
2019
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–13.1M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut $120.6M–$274.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
279k reviews
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Open WorldExtraction Shooter
Buckshot Roulette
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Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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MultiplayerDark
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≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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Gray Zone Warfare
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≈ 2.0M–3.2M
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2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
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$59.99
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Mixed
ZombiesOnline Co-Op

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.