How much revenue did Nubby's Number Factory make?

$667k–$1.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Nubby's Number Factory sell?

Q: How many copies did Nubby's Number Factory sell?

486k to 790k copies, based on its 20k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 486k–790k; $667k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut; from 20k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nubby's Number Factory and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nubby's Number Factory's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 253k–610k

best case 6.5M (Balatro)

Games like Nubby's Number Factory

A typical game among these

≈ 253k–610k copies

≈ $1.8M–$3.3M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Arcade (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Balatro at ≈ 5.0M–8.1M copies, ≈ $20.5M–$55.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 977 to 21k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Arcade (4 of 8) and Action Roguelike (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Rogue-like, priced around $12. The breakout hits carry Rogue-like + Early Access + Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Crab Champions 2023	Est. copies ≈ 774k–1.3M 4.0x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut	$9.99	31k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Early AccessAction Roguelike
Balatro 2024	Est. copies ≈ 5.0M–8.1M 25x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $20.5M–$55.0M after Steam's cut $37.2M–$84.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	200k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Card GameRoguelike Deckbuilder
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