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How many copies did Garbage Packer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$3k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$11k before Steam's cut
from 58 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Garbage Packer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Garbage Packer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 269–4k
best case 2.4M (A Hat in Time)
Games like Garbage Packer

A typical game among these

≈ 269–4k copies

≈ $1k–$51k after Steam's cut

from ~21 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: A Hat in Time at ≈ 1.8M–3.0M copies, ≈ $15.2M–$40.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 11k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Immersive Sim (6 of 8) and 3D Platformer (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 3D Platformer, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Great Soundtrack + Open World + Adventure; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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