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How many copies did Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 7k–11k
$19k–$51k after Steam's cut $34k–$78k before Steam's cut
from 166 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 543k–968k
best case 9.3M (Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition)
Games like Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises

A typical game among these

≈ 543k–968k copies

≈ $5.8M–$8.2M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Character Customization (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition at ≈ 7.1M–11.5M copies, ≈ $87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 6k to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Character Customization (4 of 8) and Turn-Based Combat (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics, priced around $45. The breakout hits carry PvE + Trading Card Game + Stylized; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

觅长生
2023
Est. copies
≈ 797k–1.3M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $6.0M–$13.6M before Steam's cut
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32k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
Gloomhaven
2021
Est. copies
≈ 400k–650k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpDark Fantasy
Solasta: Crown of the Magister
2021
Est. copies
≈ 560k–910k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.4M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
23k reviews
Very Positive
RPGCo-op Campaign
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2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
Minion Masters
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
65k reviews
Very Positive
PvETrading Card Game
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
206k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tactical RPGRPG
Wildermyth
2021
Est. copies
≈ 454k–737k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Party-Based RPGChoices Matter
The Last Spell
2023
Est. copies
≈ 341k–555k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySingleplayer

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