How much revenue did The Guilt and the Shadow make?

$7k–$18k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Guilt and the Shadow sell?

Q: How many copies did The Guilt and the Shadow sell?

3k to 5k copies, based on its 57 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 3k–5k; $7k–$18k after Steam's cut $13k–$28k before Steam's cut; from 57 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Guilt and the Shadow and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Guilt and the Shadow's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.7M–6.9M

best case 57.5M (The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered)

Games like The Guilt and the Shadow

A typical game among these

≈ 2.7M–6.9M copies

≈ $41.4M–$79.6M after Steam's cut

from ~83k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered at ≈ 43.8M–71.2M copies, ≈ $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Souls-like (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Open World + Mature + Fantasy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin 2015	Est. copies ≈ 6.5M–10.5M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $71.3M–$191.8M after Steam's cut $129.7M–$295.0M before Steam's cut	$39.99	133k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Lies of P 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $34.0M–$91.5M after Steam's cut $61.9M–$140.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	83k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeAction
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered 2015	Est. copies ≈ 43.8M–71.2M 11x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut	$49.99	898k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.8M–7.7M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $52.3M–$140.6M after Steam's cut $95.1M–$216.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	156k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice 2017	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.7M–$58.5M after Steam's cut $39.5M–$90.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	77k reviews Very Positive	AtmosphericPsychological
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $17.3M–$46.5M after Steam's cut $31.4M–$71.5M before Steam's cut	$49.99	51k reviews Very Positive	RPGAction
A Plague Tale: Innocence 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $23.1M–$62.1M after Steam's cut $42.0M–$95.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	73k reviews Very Positive	Story RichAdventure
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition 2012	Est. copies ≈ 5.7M–9.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $31.5M–$84.6M after Steam's cut $57.2M–$130.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	91k reviews Very Positive	RPGFantasy