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How many copies did holo8 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$5k–$12k after Steam's cut $8k–$19k before Steam's cut
from 168 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid holo8 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including holo8's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 23k–27k
best case 66k (Dreamcore)
Games like holo8

A typical game among these

≈ 23k–27k copies

≈ $67k–$88k after Steam's cut

from ~731 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Dreamcore at ≈ 50k–81k copies, ≈ $247k–$665k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 88 reviews in their first month; the range was 25 to 723.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Psychological Horror (6 of 8) and Walking Simulator (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Exploration + Walking Simulator, priced around $18. The breakout hits carry 3D + Nonlinear + Surreal; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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PuzzleExploration
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SurrealMystery
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2.8x vs typical
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ExplorationWalking Simulator
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[SUBJECT]
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HorrorThriller

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.