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How many copies did The Butterfly Collector sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 24k–39k
$6k–$17k after Steam's cut $12k–$27k before Steam's cut
from 962 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Butterfly Collector and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Butterfly Collector's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 16k–109k
best case 271k (Homicipher)
Games like The Butterfly Collector

A typical game among these

≈ 16k–109k copies

≈ $76k–$504k after Steam's cut

from ~930 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Homicipher at ≈ 207k–336k copies, ≈ $796k–$2.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 295 reviews in their first month; the range was 149 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (7 of 8) and Word Game (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Otome, priced around $14.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

当火车鸣笛三秒
2021
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$33k–$89k after Steam's cut $60k–$137k before Steam's cut
$9.99
487 reviews
Mostly Positive
Interactive FictionWord Game
Paper Bride 2 Zangling Village
2022
Est. copies
≈ 28k–46k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$78k–$210k after Steam's cut $142k–$324k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
恋爱绮谭 不存在的真相
2022
Est. copies
≈ 55k–89k
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$211k–$568k after Steam's cut $384k–$873k before Steam's cut
$13.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Interactive FictionWord Game
Rail of Möbius
2021
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$44k–$118k after Steam's cut $80k–$181k before Steam's cut
$12.99
495 reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelTime Travel
Our End of the World
2017
Est. copies
≈ 167k–272k
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$459k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $835k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
Sexual ContentDating Sim
Homicipher
2024
Est. copies
≈ 207k–336k
9.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$796k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$13.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorOtome
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes
2023
Est. copies
≈ 18k–29k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$49k–$130k after Steam's cut $88k–$201k before Steam's cut
$9.99
712 reviews
Very Positive
CasualAdventure
Mandemon
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9k–15k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$8k–$20k after Steam's cut $14k–$31k before Steam's cut
$2.99
373 reviews
Very Positive
AdventureVisual Novel

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