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How many copies did Rise & Shine sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 31k–51k
$86k–$231k after Steam's cut $156k–$356k before Steam's cut
from 910 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rise & Shine and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rise & Shine's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 610–1k
best case 115k (Eryi's Action)
Games like Rise & Shine

A typical game among these

≈ 610–1k copies

≈ $1k–$2k after Steam's cut

from ~26 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Eryi's Action at ≈ 88k–143k copies, ≈ $121k–$325k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 123 reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (8 of 8) and Bullet Hell (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 2D Platformer, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Action + Fast-Paced + Post-apocalyptic; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hard Minus Classic Redux
2021
Est. copies
≈ 446–725
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$367–$986 after Steam's cut $667–$2k before Steam's cut
$2.99
18 reviews
Positive
Side Scroller2D Platformer
Spin the World
2021
Est. copies
≈ 422–685
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$579–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before Steam's cut
$4.99
17 reviews
Positive
Side ScrollerBullet Hell
Steel Assault
2021
Est. copies
≈ 11k–18k
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$45k–$122k after Steam's cut $83k–$188k before Steam's cut
$14.99
445 reviews
Mostly Positive
2D PlatformerFast-Paced
BLOWFLY2:OVERLIMIT
2024
Est. copies
≈ 942–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$3.99
38 reviews
Positive
Precision PlatformerSide Scroller
Boom Blaster
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$3.99
43 reviews
Mixed
Hero ShooterSide Scroller
Typomancer in the Feather's Way
2021
Est. copies
≈ 521–846
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$715–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$4.99
21 reviews
Positive
TypingSpelling
Kungfu Cowboy
2021
Est. copies
≈ 769–1k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$4.99
31 reviews
Positive
Action Roguelike2D Platformer
Eryi's Action
2013
Est. copies
≈ 88k–143k
54x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$121k–$325k after Steam's cut $219k–$499k before Steam's cut
$4.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
2D PlatformerPlatformer

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.