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How many copies did Snakebird sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 61k–100k
$118k–$317k after Steam's cut $215k–$488k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Snakebird and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Snakebird's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.1M–4.9M
best case 4.8M (Ori and the Will of the Wisps)
Games like Snakebird

A typical game among these

≈ 4.1M–4.9M copies

≈ $16.7M–$35.6M after Steam's cut

from ~97k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (2 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Ori and the Will of the Wisps at ≈ 3.6M–5.9M copies, ≈ $30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 84k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (2 of 8) and Dark (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Beautiful + Metroidvania, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Helltaker
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayCute
My Summer Car
2025
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.4M after Steam's cut $21.9M–$49.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
118k reviews
Very Positive
Automobile SimSimulation
BattleBlock Theater®
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.8M–$45.3M after Steam's cut $30.6M–$69.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
73k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Ori and the Will of the Wisps
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulMetroidvania
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Papers, Please
2013
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.0M–$37.6M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$57.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
81k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IndiePolitical
DEVOUR
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.2M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$24.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
88k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op

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