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How many copies did Tangle Tower sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 196k–319k
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tangle Tower and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tangle Tower's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 568k–917k
best case 5.0M (Disco Elysium - The Final Cut)
Games like Tangle Tower

A typical game among these

≈ 568k–917k copies

≈ $4.1M–$8.1M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Disco Elysium - The Final Cut at ≈ 3.8M–6.2M copies, ≈ $41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 75 to 12k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (5 of 8) and Detective (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry RPG + Isometric + Choices Matter; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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