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How many copies did Strange Horticulture sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 401k–652k
$1.8M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.3M before Steam's cut
from 16k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Strange Horticulture and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Strange Horticulture's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 581k–672k
best case 3.1M (L.A. Noire)
Games like Strange Horticulture

A typical game among these

≈ 581k–672k copies

≈ $2.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut

from ~18k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: L.A. Noire at ≈ 2.3M–3.8M copies, ≈ $12.8M–$34.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 724 to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Mystery (7 of 8) and Puzzle (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mystery, priced around $13. The breakout hits carry Horror; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

We Were Here
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.9M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
33k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayCo-op
L.A. Noire
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.8M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.8M–$34.5M after Steam's cut $23.4M–$53.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
DetectiveCrime
Unheard - Voices of Crime
2019
Est. copies
≈ 981k–1.6M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.8M before Steam's cut
$6.99
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectivePuzzle
We Were Here Together
2019
Est. copies
≈ 512k–831k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.6M before Steam's cut
$12.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleOnline Co-Op
Sanfu
2023
Est. copies
≈ 443k–720k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.5M before Steam's cut
$10.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
MysteryRPG
Murders on the Yangtze River
2024
Est. copies
≈ 528k–858k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveAdventure
Escape Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 482k–783k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$11.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
Cyber Manhunt
2021
Est. copies
≈ 390k–634k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.