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How many copies did Narcosis sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 51k–82k
$208k–$560k after Steam's cut $379k–$862k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Narcosis and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Narcosis's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–3.5M
best case 15.2M (Subnautica)
Games like Narcosis

A typical game among these

≈ 2.2M–3.5M copies

≈ $17.2M–$39.8M after Steam's cut

from ~43k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Subnautica at ≈ 11.6M–18.8M copies, ≈ $95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (7 of 8) and FPS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SOMA
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.4M after Steam's cut $38.8M–$88.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BioShock™
2007
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$11.2M–$30.1M after Steam's cut $20.4M–$46.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAtmospheric
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.8M
8.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
381k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
BioShock™ Remastered
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.9M–$40.1M after Steam's cut $27.1M–$61.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
BioShock™ 2 Remastered
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.9M–$18.7M after Steam's cut $12.6M–$28.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
FPSAction
Subnautica: Below Zero
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.7M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
109k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Depth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.3M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$42.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
ShooterMultiplayer
SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom - Rehydrated
2020
Est. copies
≈ 452k–735k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerAdventure

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