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How many copies did Dale Hardshovel HD sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
from 40 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dale Hardshovel HD and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dale Hardshovel HD's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 163k–655k
best case 1.2M (Peggle Deluxe)
Games like Dale Hardshovel HD

A typical game among these

≈ 163k–655k copies

≈ $567k–$2.3M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Peggle Deluxe at ≈ 921k–1.5M copies, ≈ $1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 31 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 472.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Arcade (8 of 8) and Puzzle (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Arcade, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Peggle Deluxe
2007
Est. copies
≈ 921k–1.5M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.2M before Steam's cut
$4.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CasualPuzzle
PAC-MAN™ Championship Edition DX+
2013
Est. copies
≈ 521k–847k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ArcadeRetro
Zuma Deluxe
2006
Est. copies
≈ 433k–703k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$594k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Match 3Puzzle
Duck Simulator 2
2021
Est. copies
≈ 71k–115k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationAdventure
Zuma's Revenge!
2009
Est. copies
≈ 224k–364k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$307k–$826k after Steam's cut $559k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
CasualAction
PePiBo: Peregrino Pinata Bowling
2021
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$163–$440 after Steam's cut $296–$677 before Steam's cut
$7.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
CasualSports
Progressbar95
2020
Est. copies
≈ 91k–148k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$125k–$337k after Steam's cut $228k–$519k before Steam's cut
$4.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CasualArcade
Candy gun
2021
Est. copies
≈ 124–202
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$340–$918 after Steam's cut $619–$1k before Steam's cut
$9.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews

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