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How many copies did Bad Rats Show sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 40k–65k
$22k–$59k after Steam's cut $40k–$91k before Steam's cut
from 963 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Bad Rats Show and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Bad Rats Show's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–6.5M
best case 88.0M (Left 4 Dead 2)
Games like Bad Rats Show

A typical game among these

≈ 2.2M–6.5M copies

≈ $33.7M–$56.0M after Steam's cut

from ~73k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Left 4 Dead 2 at ≈ 67.0M–108.9M copies, ≈ $184.1M–$495.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 31k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 31k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (4 of 8) and FPS (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $12. The breakout hits carry Action Roguelike + Rogue-like + Indie; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.8M–41.9M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
460k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
Mortal Kombat Komplete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 468k–760k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
19k reviews
Very Positive
FightingGore
GTFO
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$18.2M–$49.1M after Steam's cut $33.2M–$75.5M before Steam's cut
$39.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
Left 4 Dead 2
2009
Est. copies
≈ 67.0M–108.9M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$184.1M–$495.0M after Steam's cut $334.7M–$761.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.1M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesCo-op
Resident Evil 4 (2005)
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–9.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.4M–$81.7M after Steam's cut $55.2M–$125.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
99k reviews
Very Positive
Inventory ManagementSurvival Horror
Back 4 Blood
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.8M after Steam's cut $54.6M–$124.2M before Steam's cut
$59.99
73k reviews
Mixed
ZombiesOnline Co-Op
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.1M–$110.6M after Steam's cut $74.8M–$170.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackHack and Slash

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.