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How many copies did Zoombinis sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 65k–106k
$215k–$579k after Steam's cut $391k–$891k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Zoombinis and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Zoombinis's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–2k
best case 29k (Nancy Drew®: Warnings at Waverly Academy)
Games like Zoombinis

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–2k copies

≈ $1k–$4k after Steam's cut

from ~39 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Puzzle (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Nancy Drew®: Warnings at Waverly Academy at ≈ 22k–36k copies, ≈ $92k–$247k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (4 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Puzzle; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Nancy Drew®: Warnings at Waverly Academy
2010
Est. copies
≈ 22k–36k
9.1x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$92k–$247k after Steam's cut $167k–$380k before Steam's cut
$14.99
353 reviews
Very Positive
DetectiveExploration
aMAZE ZER0
2017
Est. copies
≈ 10k–16k
7.4x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$23k before Steam's cut
$1.99
290 reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleSingleplayer
Obstruction : VR
2018
Est. copies
≈ 243–395
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$333–$897 after Steam's cut $606–$1k before Steam's cut
$4.99
8 reviews
8 user reviews
IndieCasual
Archaica: The Path of Light
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9k–15k
6.9x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$38k–$103k after Steam's cut $69k–$158k before Steam's cut
$14.99
269 reviews
Very Positive
IndiePuzzle
Power Brain Trainer
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$4k–$10k after Steam's cut $7k–$15k before Steam's cut
$11.99
39 reviews
Positive
IndieCasual
Best Life Simulator
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$2.99
42 reviews
Mixed
IndieStrategy
Colorful 3D II
2020
Est. copies
≈ 174–282
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$239–$640 after Steam's cut $434–$985 before Steam's cut
$4.99
7 reviews
7 user reviews
CasualSimulation
Power Tester
2020
Est. copies
≈ 496–806
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$545–$1k after Steam's cut $990–$2k before Steam's cut
$3.99
20 reviews
Mostly Positive
CasualSimulation

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