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How many copies did Shadwen sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 57k–93k
$267k–$718k after Steam's cut $486k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shadwen and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadwen's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 163k–985k
best case 3.7M (Dishonored 2)
Games like Shadwen

A typical game among these

≈ 163k–985k copies

≈ $391k–$11.4M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Dishonored 2 at ≈ 2.8M–4.5M copies, ≈ $23.0M–$61.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Assassin (8 of 8) and Stealth (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Stealth + First-Person, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 461k–749k
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.2M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAction
Pretty Agent
2024
Est. copies
≈ 967–2k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$4.99
39 reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGAction
Velvet Assassin
2009
Est. copies
≈ 162k–264k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$268k–$719k after Steam's cut $486k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$5.99
3k reviews
Mixed
StealthAction
Dishonored 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
19x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.0M–$61.8M after Steam's cut $41.8M–$95.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
StealthFirst-Person
Ereban: Shadow Legacy
2024
Est. copies
≈ 8k–14k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$46k–$124k after Steam's cut $84k–$190k before Steam's cut
$19.99
337 reviews
Very Positive
Stealth3D Platformer
Assassin's Creed® Syndicate
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
9.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.4M–$35.9M after Steam's cut $24.3M–$55.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
AssassinOpen World
Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: China
2015
Est. copies
≈ 191k–310k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$524k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $954k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
AssassinStealth
Assassin’s Creed® Liberation HD
2014
Est. copies
≈ 185k–300k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Mixed
ActionFemale Protagonist

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