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How many copies did Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: China sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 191k–310k
$524k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $954k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: China and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: China's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.2M–7.5M
best case 13.5M (Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition)
Games like Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: China

A typical game among these

≈ 6.2M–7.5M copies

≈ $55.4M–$164.9M after Steam's cut

from ~123k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition at ≈ 10.3M–16.7M copies, ≈ $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Stealth (5 of 8) and Assassin (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Ninja, priced around $60.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.3M–16.7M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
357k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
189k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
97k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
This War of Mine
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.1M–$81.0M after Steam's cut $54.8M–$124.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalWar
Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: India
2016
Est. copies
≈ 49k–79k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$134k–$361k after Steam's cut $244k–$555k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Mixed
ActionAdventure
Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: Russia
2016
Est. copies
≈ 55k–90k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$152k–$409k after Steam's cut $276k–$629k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Mixed
ActionAdventure
Assassin's Creed® Origins
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$73.3M–$197.2M after Steam's cut $133.3M–$303.3M before Steam's cut
$59.99
129k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAssassin

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