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How many copies did Reflection of Mine sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–14k
$21k–$57k after Steam's cut $39k–$88k before Steam's cut
from 250 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Reflection of Mine and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Reflection of Mine's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 692–1k
best case 197k (BirdGut)
Games like Reflection of Mine

A typical game among these

≈ 692–1k copies

≈ $753–$4k after Steam's cut

from ~23 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: BirdGut at ≈ 150k–244k copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 14 reviews in their first month; the range was 7 to 171.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (6 of 8) and Puzzle-Platformer (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer, priced around $2. The breakout hits carry Indie + Free to Play + Adventure; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BirdGut
2019
Est. copies
≈ 150k–244k
232x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayIndie
Diari
2024
Est. copies
≈ 570–927
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
$12.99
23 reviews
Mostly Positive
AdventurePlatformer
Don't Byte Your Tongue
2023
Est. copies
≈ 496–806
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$408–$1k after Steam's cut $742–$2k before Steam's cut
$2.99
20 reviews
Positive
Precision Platformer2D Platformer
Goat's Tale (Classic)
2022
Est. copies
≈ 8k–14k
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$5k–$12k after Steam's cut $8k–$19k before Steam's cut
$1.99
335 reviews
Very Positive
Goat's Tale Adventure
2024
Est. copies
≈ 546–887
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$299–$803 after Steam's cut $543–$1k before Steam's cut
$1.99
22 reviews
Mostly Positive
Seeking Light
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
52 reviews
Mixed
Early AccessAdventure
Fart King
2025
Est. copies
≈ 521–846
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$428–$1k after Steam's cut $779–$2k before Steam's cut
$2.99
21 reviews
Positive
Precision PlatformerSide Scroller
Who Takes The Crown?
2025
Est. copies
≈ 942–2k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
$7.99
38 reviews
Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.