How much revenue did Shard Games make?

$9k–$24k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Shard Games sell?

Q: How many copies did Shard Games sell?

4k to 6k copies, based on its 96 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4k–6k; $9k–$24k after Steam's cut $16k–$36k before Steam's cut; from 96 reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shard Games and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shard Games's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 568k–1.2M

best case 4.2M (Splitgate)

Games like Shard Games

A typical game among these

≈ 568k–1.2M copies

≈ $2.6M–$4.5M after Steam's cut

from ~15k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Splitgate at ≈ 3.2M–5.2M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (8 of 8) and Shooter (8 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Arena Shooter. The breakout hits carry Free to Play + Arena Shooter + Fast-Paced; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2004 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Devil Daggers 2016	Est. copies ≈ 395k–643k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	10k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSDifficult
Splitgate 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.2M 7.2x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	110k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayFPS
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch 2004	Est. copies ≈ 972k–1.6M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	15k reviews Very Positive	ActionFPS
BATTALION: Legacy 2019	Est. copies ≈ 469k–763k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	16k reviews Mixed	FPSArena Shooter
Quake Live 2014	Est. copies ≈ 890k–1.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Very Positive	FPSArena Shooter
Quake II 2007	Est. copies ≈ 659k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	10k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSClassic
Prodeus 2022	Est. copies ≈ 205k–333k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	8k reviews Very Positive	Boomer ShooterFPS
Quake 2007	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.7M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.8M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSClassic