How many copies did Splitgate sell?

3.2M to 5.2M copies, based on its 110k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Splitgate make?

Splitgate is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Splitgate?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 3.2M–5.2M; from 110k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Splitgate and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Splitgate's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 601k–1.2M

best case 8.0M (ULTRAKILL)

Games like Splitgate

A typical game among these

≈ 601k–1.2M copies

≈ $4.9M–$6.2M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ULTRAKILL at ≈ 6.1M–9.9M copies, ≈ $50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 33k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (8 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Arena Shooter + FPS, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Fast-Paced + Arena Shooter + Hero Shooter; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2004 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
BATTALION: Legacy 2019	Est. copies ≈ 469k–763k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	16k reviews Mixed	FPSArena Shooter
Quake 2007	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.7M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.8M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSClassic
Quake Live 2014	Est. copies ≈ 890k–1.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Very Positive	FPSArena Shooter
Quake Champions 2022	Est. copies ≈ 972k–1.6M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.7M–$7.2M after Steam's cut $4.9M–$11.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	39k reviews Mostly Positive	Arena ShooterHero Shooter
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun 2023	Est. copies ≈ 454k–738k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut	$21.99	18k reviews Very Positive	Boomer ShooterFPS
ULTRAKILL 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.1M–9.9M 15x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut $91.2M–$207.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	245k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Boomer ShooterFast-Paced
Serious Sam 4 2020	Est. copies ≈ 442k–718k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.9M–$13.1M after Steam's cut $8.8M–$20.1M before Steam's cut	$39.99	18k reviews Very Positive	ActionGore
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch 2004	Est. copies ≈ 972k–1.6M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	15k reviews Very Positive	ActionFPS