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How big is Dogfight Elite?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 2k–3k
from 78 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dogfight Elite and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dogfight Elite's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 22k–49k
best case 362k (Nuclear Option)
Games like Dogfight Elite

A typical game among these

≈ 22k–49k copies

≈ $97k–$241k after Steam's cut

from ~702 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Nuclear Option at ≈ 276k–448k copies, ≈ $1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 318 reviews in their first month; the range was 135 to 601.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Flight (8 of 8) and Simulation (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Flight + Simulation, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry VR + Historical + Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fleet Command
2006
Est. copies
≈ 30k–49k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$83k–$224k after Steam's cut $152k–$345k before Steam's cut
$9.99
480 reviews
Very Positive
WargameRTS
IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad
2014
Est. copies
≈ 559k–909k
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.8M before Steam's cut
$49.99
10k reviews
Mostly Positive
FlightRealistic
Warplanes: WW2 Dogfight
2019
Est. copies
≈ 52k–84k
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayFlight
Nuclear Option
2023
Est. copies
≈ 276k–448k
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Early AccessFlight
Falcon 4.0
2016
Est. copies
≈ 13k–21k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$52k–$141k after Steam's cut $95k–$217k before Steam's cut
$14.99
306 reviews
Very Positive
SimulationFlight
Flying Tigers: Shadows Over China
2017
Est. copies
≈ 32k–52k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$131k–$352k after Steam's cut $238k–$541k before Steam's cut
$14.99
923 reviews
Mostly Positive
FlightWorld War II
Tiny Combat Arena
2022
Est. copies
≈ 39k–64k
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$216k–$581k after Steam's cut $393k–$893k before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessSimulation
B-17 Flying Fortress : The Mighty 8th Redux
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9k–14k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$35k–$95k after Steam's cut $64k–$146k before Steam's cut
$14.99
346 reviews
Mixed
ActionSimulation

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