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How many copies did Nuclear Option sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 276k–448k
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
from 11k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nuclear Option and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nuclear Option's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 793k–1.6M
best case 27.0M (BeamNG.drive)
Games like Nuclear Option

A typical game among these

≈ 793k–1.6M copies

≈ $10.4M–$14.9M after Steam's cut

from ~30k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: BeamNG.drive at ≈ 20.5M–33.4M copies, ≈ $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 20k reviews in their first month; the range was 6k to 32k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (5 of 8) and Flight (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Driving, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Driving + Automobile Sim + Realistic; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
X4: Foundations
2018
Est. copies
≈ 920k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.7M–$34.0M after Steam's cut $23.0M–$52.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSimulation
Century: Age of Ashes
2021
Est. copies
≈ 456k–741k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
18k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayDragons
VTOL VR
2017
Est. copies
≈ 752k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.7M after Steam's cut $11.3M–$25.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FlightVR
BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
421k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
Trailmakers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceAction
Brick Rigs
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.2M–$22.0M after Steam's cut $14.8M–$33.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxDestruction
Avorion
2020
Est. copies
≈ 362k–588k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.7M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
ExplorationSandbox

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