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How many copies did Four Last Things sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 57k–92k
$156k–$420k after Steam's cut $284k–$645k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Four Last Things and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Four Last Things's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 15.0M–20.1M
best case 20.7M (Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI)
Games like Four Last Things

A typical game among these

≈ 15.0M–20.1M copies

≈ $195.8M–$407.4M after Steam's cut

from ~287k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI at ≈ 15.8M–25.7M copies, ≈ $260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 63 reviews in their first month; the range was 29 to 108.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Historical (8 of 8) and 4X (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Historical, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hearts of Iron IV
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.1M–24.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$207.7M–$558.4M after Steam's cut $377.6M–$859.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
363k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyWorld War II
Sid Meier's Civilization® V
2010
Est. copies
≈ 13.3M–21.7M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$110.0M–$295.6M after Steam's cut $199.9M–$454.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
211k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Turn-Based StrategyStrategy
Benign Land
2025
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
$4.99
47 reviews
Mostly Positive
Walking SimulatorAtmospheric
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.7M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut $473.7M–$1077.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
380k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Liquidators
2020
Est. copies
≈ 30k–50k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StylizedSurreal
Mewseum: Masterpieces
2025
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$7k–$19k after Steam's cut $13k–$29k before Steam's cut
$6.99
148 reviews
Very Positive
HistoricalCasual
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
189k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Broken Edge
2022
Est. copies
≈ 17k–27k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$69k–$185k after Steam's cut $125k–$285k before Steam's cut
$14.99
674 reviews
Very Positive
VRPvP

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