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How many copies did Fictorum sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 40k–65k
$110k–$296k after Steam's cut $200k–$455k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fictorum and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fictorum's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 550k–696k
best case 841k (Wizard of Legend)
Games like Fictorum

A typical game among these

≈ 550k–696k copies

≈ $3.1M–$4.3M after Steam's cut

from ~17k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Wizard of Legend at ≈ 641k–1.0M copies, ≈ $2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 15 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 15k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (7 of 8) and Rogue-like (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $16.
When they shipped
7 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
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$41–$111 after Steam's cut $75–$170 before Steam's cut
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Action RoguelikeShoot 'Em Up
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The Spell Brigade
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Est. copies
≈ 419k–682k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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Action RoguelikeOnline Co-Op
Wizard of Legend
2018
Est. copies
≈ 641k–1.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Action RoguelikePixel Graphics
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Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite

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