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How many copies did >observer_ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 204k–332k
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid >observer_ and predicted how it would do from its 6 similar games. Every figure here, including >observer_'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 100k–182k
best case 336k (I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream)
Games like >observer_

A typical game among these

≈ 100k–182k copies

≈ $948k–$1.2M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 6 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream at ≈ 256k–416k copies, ≈ $704k–$1.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 867 reviews in their first month; the range was 363 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (4 of 6) and Stealth (3 of 6).
The winners
Winners here lead with Point & Click + Horror, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

ECHO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 63k–103k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$436k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $792k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
Sci-fiStealth
Apsulov: End of Gods
2019
Est. copies
≈ 49k–80k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$272k–$730k after Steam's cut $494k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureHorror
I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream
2013
Est. copies
≈ 256k–416k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$704k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Point & ClickAdventure
Observer: System Redux
2020
Est. copies
≈ 75k–122k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$620k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorInvestigation
Receiver 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 76k–124k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$419k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $763k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Golden Light
2022
Est. copies
≈ 99k–161k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$546k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $992k–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
3DAction

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