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How many copies did Rusty Lake: Roots sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 384k–624k
$421k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $766k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rusty Lake: Roots and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rusty Lake: Roots's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.6M–12.5M
best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)
Games like Rusty Lake: Roots

A typical game among these

≈ 5.6M–12.5M copies

≈ $47.7M–$74.5M after Steam's cut

from ~168k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.5M–15.4M copies, ≈ $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 69k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (5 of 8) and Physics (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PePiBo: Peregrino Pinata Bowling
2021
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$163–$440 after Steam's cut $296–$677 before Steam's cut
$7.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
CasualSports
Stray
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut $66.5M–$151.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
179k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CatsAdventure
Plants vs. Zombies GOTY Edition
2009
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.6M–$36.5M after Steam's cut $24.7M–$56.1M before Steam's cut
$4.99
156k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseZombies
Puzzle Bowling
2020
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$20–$55 after Steam's cut $37–$84 before Steam's cut
$0.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
CasualRelaxing
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Ori and the Will of the Wisps
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulMetroidvania
Bomb Bowling 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 346–562
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$475–$1k after Steam's cut $863–$2k before Steam's cut
$4.99
12 reviews
Positive
PuzzlePhysics
Bomb Bowling
2019
Est. copies
≈ 893–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$4.99
31 reviews
Positive
IndiePuzzle

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