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How many copies did Guacamelee! 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 103k–167k
$567k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Guacamelee! 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Guacamelee! 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 443k–752k
best case 1.6M (Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night)
Games like Guacamelee! 2

A typical game among these

≈ 443k–752k copies

≈ $3.0M–$6.6M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night at ≈ 1.2M–2.0M copies, ≈ $13.2M–$35.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Metroidvania (7 of 8) and Platformer (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Female Protagonist, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

UnEpic
2014
Est. copies
≈ 458k–745k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.8M before Steam's cut
$12.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
RPGIndie
Guacamelee! Super Turbo Championship Edition
2014
Est. copies
≈ 398k–647k
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue Legacy 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 376k–611k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
ArcadeMetroidvania
Outland
2014
Est. copies
≈ 221k–360k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
4k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerAction
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.2M–$35.6M after Steam's cut $24.1M–$54.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
42k reviews
Very Positive
Salt and Sanctuary
2016
Est. copies
≈ 915k–1.5M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.2M–$18.7M before Steam's cut
$17.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
Guacamelee! Gold Edition
2013
Est. copies
≈ 380k–618k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
Abyss Odyssey
2014
Est. copies
≈ 142k–231k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$585k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Mixed
ActionAction Roguelike

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