How many copies did Darwin Project sell?

458k to 743k copies, based on its 18k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Darwin Project make?

Darwin Project is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Darwin Project?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 458k–743k; from 18k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Darwin Project and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Darwin Project's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.3M–9.4M

best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)

Games like Darwin Project

A typical game among these

≈ 4.3M–9.4M copies

≈ $67.8M–$104.2M after Steam's cut

from ~170k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 33k reviews in their first month; the range was 115 to 76k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Battle Royale (5 of 8) and FPS (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Battle Royale + FPS. The breakout hits carry Shooter + FPS + Battle Royale; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Apex Legends™ 2020	Est. copies ≈ 26.6M–43.2M 6.3x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	1.1M reviews Mixed	Free to PlayBattle Royale
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT 2021	Est. copies ≈ 7.5M–12.2M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	303k reviews Mostly Positive	Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 16x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	88k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerPhysics
Stumble Guys 2021	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	139k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayBattle Royale
Z1 Battle Royale 2018	Est. copies ≈ 6.2M–10.0M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	202k reviews Mixed	SurvivalMassively Multiplayer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019	Est. copies ≈ 8.0M–13.1M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut $120.6M–$274.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	279k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldExtraction Shooter
MORDHAU 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.3M–5.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $26.9M–$72.3M after Steam's cut $48.9M–$111.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	113k reviews Mostly Positive	MedievalMultiplayer