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How many copies did Labyrinth of Refrain: Coven of Dusk sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 45k–72k
$612k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Labyrinth of Refrain: Coven of Dusk and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Labyrinth of Refrain: Coven of Dusk's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 163k–267k
best case 446k (Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom)
Games like Labyrinth of Refrain: Coven of Dusk

A typical game among these

≈ 163k–267k copies

≈ $1.3M–$1.7M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom at ≈ 339k–552k copies, ≈ $7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (8 of 8) and JRPG (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Anime, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Ys I & II Chronicles+
2013
Est. copies
≈ 194k–316k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$802k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
JRPGAction
Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom
2018
Est. copies
≈ 339k–552k
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before Steam's cut
$79.98
11k reviews
Very Positive
RPGJRPG
Ys: The Oath in Felghana
2012
Est. copies
≈ 135k–220k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$558k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
ActionGreat Soundtrack
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky the 3rd
2017
Est. copies
≈ 89k–145k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$735k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
RPGJRPG
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale
2010
Est. copies
≈ 476k–774k
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CapitalismAnime
Ys Origin
2012
Est. copies
≈ 231k–376k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
RPGJRPG
Aura Kingdom
2014
Est. copies
≈ 475k–772k
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
8k reviews
Mostly Positive
AnimeFree to Play
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel
2017
Est. copies
≈ 204k–332k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
JRPGAnime

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