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How many copies did Black Mirror sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25k–40k
$205k–$551k after Steam's cut $373k–$848k before Steam's cut
from 723 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Black Mirror and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Black Mirror's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 270k–1.1M
best case 2.2M (Remnant: From the Ashes)
Games like Black Mirror

A typical game among these

≈ 270k–1.1M copies

≈ $1.7M–$9.3M after Steam's cut

from ~15k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Remnant: From the Ashes at ≈ 1.7M–2.7M copies, ≈ $18.2M–$49.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 899 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (5 of 8) and Psychological Horror (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Co-op, priced around $40.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

CARRION
2020
Est. copies
≈ 895k–1.5M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
Villain ProtagonistPixel Graphics
Forgive Me Father
2022
Est. copies
≈ 152k–246k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$834k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
FPSBoomer Shooter
WORLD OF HORROR
2023
Est. copies
≈ 245k–397k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorLovecraftian
FAITH: The Unholy Trinity
2022
Est. copies
≈ 224k–364k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$922k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorPixel Graphics
Scorn
2022
Est. copies
≈ 494k–802k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.6M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.5M before Steam's cut
$39.99
20k reviews
Mostly Positive
GoreHorror
Remnant: From the Ashes
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$18.2M–$49.1M after Steam's cut $33.2M–$75.5M before Steam's cut
$39.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeAction
Lost in Vivo
2018
Est. copies
≈ 122k–198k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$402k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $731k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
$11.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
SIGNALIS
2022
Est. copies
≈ 862k–1.4M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.7M after Steam's cut $8.6M–$19.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

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