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How many copies did Defence to death sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 10k–16k
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut
from 279 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Defence to death and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Defence to death's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 323k–1.2M
best case 2.5M (Minion Masters)
Games like Defence to death

A typical game among these

≈ 323k–1.2M copies

≈ $1.8M–$4.7M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Minion Masters at ≈ 1.9M–3.1M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 24 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share RTS (5 of 8) and Tower Defense (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Last Spell
2023
Est. copies
≈ 341k–555k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySingleplayer
Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten (DX edition)
2012
Est. copies
≈ 222k–361k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$916k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Tower DefenseFemale Protagonist
Creeper World 3: Arc Eternal
2014
Est. copies
≈ 271k–440k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy
Infested Planet
2014
Est. copies
≈ 171k–277k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$704k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTower Defense
Diplomacy is Not an Option
2024
Est. copies
≈ 315k–512k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Real-Time with PauseResource Management
They Are Billions
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.2M–$50.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
52k reviews
Very Positive
Base-BuildingColony Sim
Minion Masters
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
5.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
65k reviews
Very Positive
PvETrading Card Game
Age of Undead
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$13k–$36k after Steam's cut $24k–$55k before Steam's cut
$19.99
97 reviews
Mostly Positive
RTSReal-Time with Pause

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.