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How many copies did Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten (DX edition) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 222k–361k
$916k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten (DX edition) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten (DX edition)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–25k
best case 88k (Prime World: Defenders)
Games like Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten (DX edition)

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–25k copies

≈ $4k–$163k after Steam's cut

from ~361 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Prime World: Defenders at ≈ 67k–108k copies, ≈ $183k–$492k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 42 reviews in their first month; the range was 7 to 262.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Tower Defense (7 of 8) and Tactical RPG (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tower Defense + Card Game, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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