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How many copies did Diplomacy is Not an Option sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 315k–512k
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
from 13k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Diplomacy is Not an Option and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Diplomacy is Not an Option's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–6.9M
best case 18.7M (Cities: Skylines)
Games like Diplomacy is Not an Option

A typical game among these

≈ 1.8M–6.9M copies

≈ $26.8M–$139.4M after Steam's cut

from ~78k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cities: Skylines at ≈ 14.2M–23.1M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 20k reviews in their first month; the range was 17k to 44k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share City Builder (6 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with City Builder + Simulation, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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≈ 8.5M–13.8M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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2023
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SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
291k reviews
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Manor Lords
2024
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≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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2024
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≈ 682k–1.1M
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$39.99
27k reviews
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Frostpunk
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Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$29.99
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Victoria 3
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
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Age of Empires® III (2007)
2012
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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StrategyRTS

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