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How many copies did Age of Empires® III (2007) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
from 32k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Age of Empires® III (2007) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Age of Empires® III (2007)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.3M–7.3M
best case 6.9M (Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition)
Games like Age of Empires® III (2007)

A typical game among these

≈ 4.3M–7.3M copies

≈ $52.6M–$67.6M after Steam's cut

from ~108k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition at ≈ 5.3M–8.6M copies, ≈ $50.7M–$136.2M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Base-Building (6 of 8) and Building (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with RTS + City Builder, priced around $35.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Frostpunk
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.5M–$92.8M after Steam's cut $62.8M–$142.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
138k reviews
Very Positive
Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.2M after Steam's cut $92.1M–$209.6M before Steam's cut
$34.99
183k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Age of Empires II (Retired)
2013
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$35.7M–$96.1M after Steam's cut $65.0M–$147.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
103k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyRTS
Company of Heroes 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 7.2M–11.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$39.4M–$105.8M after Steam's cut $71.6M–$162.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
113k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyWorld War II
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.1M–$70.3M after Steam's cut $47.5M–$108.1M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Prison Architect
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$31.0M–$83.3M after Steam's cut $56.3M–$128.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
77k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationBuilding
Kenshi
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.3M–$78.9M after Steam's cut $53.3M–$121.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
117k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldSandbox

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