How much revenue did Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1 make?

$50k–$134k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1 sell?

Q: How many copies did Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1 sell?

12k to 20k copies, based on its 351 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 12k–20k; $50k–$134k after Steam's cut $90k–$206k before Steam's cut; from 351 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1 and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 623k–922k

best case 1.1M (NEKOPARA Vol. 0)

Games like Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1

A typical game among these

≈ 623k–922k copies

≈ $1.7M–$2.4M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: NEKOPARA Vol. 0 at ≈ 869k–1.4M copies, ≈ $715k–$1.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Anime (3 of 3) and Nudity (3 of 3).
The winners: Winners here lead with Anime + Nudity, priced around $3.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2017. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 43 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
NEKOPARA Vol. 3 2017	Est. copies ≈ 414k–672k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut	$9.99	12k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HentaiSexual Content
NEKOPARA Vol. 2 2016	Est. copies ≈ 535k–870k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	13k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AnimeSexual Content
NEKOPARA Vol. 0 2015	Est. copies ≈ 869k–1.4M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $715k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut	$2.99	18k reviews Very Positive	AnimeNudity