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How many copies did PAKO 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 15k–24k
$24k–$65k after Steam's cut $44k–$99k before Steam's cut
from 424 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid PAKO 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including PAKO 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.0M–10.6M
best case 27.0M (BeamNG.drive)
Games like PAKO 2

A typical game among these

≈ 4.0M–10.6M copies

≈ $59.4M–$193.5M after Steam's cut

from ~165k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: BeamNG.drive at ≈ 20.5M–33.4M copies, ≈ $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 17k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 42k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Driving (7 of 8) and Racing (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Driving, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
421k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
The Crew™ 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.0M–$67.2M after Steam's cut $45.5M–$103.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
100k reviews
Mostly Positive
RacingOpen World
Forza Horizon 5
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.0M–11.4M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$115.3M–$310.1M after Steam's cut $209.7M–$477.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
282k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.8M–15.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Forza Horizon 4
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
DiRT Rally
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
40k reviews
Very Positive
RacingSimulation
Need for Speed™ Heat
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$73.7M–$198.2M after Steam's cut $134.0M–$304.9M before Steam's cut
$69.99
154k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
CarX Drift Racing Online
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.4M–$38.6M after Steam's cut $26.1M–$59.4M before Steam's cut
$16.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingPhysics

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.