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How big is Pixel Sketch?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 35k–57k
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Pixel Sketch and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Pixel Sketch's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 57–1k
best case 7k (Deduce Together)
Games like Pixel Sketch

A typical game among these

≈ 57–1k copies

≈ $173–$13k after Steam's cut

from ~19 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Deduce Together at ≈ 6k–9k copies, ≈ $9k–$25k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 74 reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Board Game (8 of 8) and Word Game (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Hidden Object + Artificial Intelligence, priced around $6.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Word GamePuzzle

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.