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How many copies did The soldier in the mine sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
$7k–$18k after Steam's cut $12k–$27k before Steam's cut
from 140 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The soldier in the mine and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The soldier in the mine's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 622k–779k
best case 5.9M (Celeste)
Games like The soldier in the mine

A typical game among these

≈ 622k–779k copies

≈ $3.0M–$3.7M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (7 of 8) and Puzzle (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BattleBlock Theater®
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
7.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.8M–$45.3M after Steam's cut $30.6M–$69.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
73k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Thomas Was Alone
2012
Est. copies
≈ 594k–965k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerNarration
Hue
2016
Est. copies
≈ 474k–770k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
IndiePuzzle
LIMBO
2011
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.4M
6.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.5M–$36.3M after Steam's cut $24.5M–$55.8M before Steam's cut
$12.49
62k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerIndie
Seen
2019
Est. copies
≈ 288k–467k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$78k–$210k after Steam's cut $142k–$324k before Steam's cut
$0.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessIndie
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Braid
2009
Est. copies
≈ 629k–1.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerPuzzle
Never Alone (Kisima Ingitchuna)
2014
Est. copies
≈ 486k–790k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.4M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
IndieLocal Co-Op

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