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How many copies did Gridiron sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 50k–81k
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gridiron and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gridiron's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 15k–37k
best case 71k (STRIDE)
Games like Gridiron

A typical game among these

≈ 15k–37k copies

≈ $66k–$321k after Steam's cut

from ~675 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Arena Shooter (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: STRIDE at ≈ 54k–88k copies, ≈ $296k–$797k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 376 reviews in their first month; the range was 8 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Arena Shooter (4 of 8) and Parkour (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Sports, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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