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How many copies did Ballistic Mini Golf sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $8k–$17k before Steam's cut
from 88 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ballistic Mini Golf and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ballistic Mini Golf's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8.1M–29.3M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Ballistic Mini Golf

A typical game among these

≈ 8.1M–29.3M copies

≈ $55.0M–$80.2M after Steam's cut

from ~340k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Survival (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (3 of 8) and Co-op (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut
$35.00
236k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
8.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
Slay the Spire
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.3M–10.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut $79.0M–$179.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
220k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Brawlhalla
2017
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
413k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Slime Rancher
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
158k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CuteExploration
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
267k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.