How much revenue did Tales of ARISE make?

$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Tales of ARISE sell?

Q: How many copies did Tales of ARISE sell?

912k to 1.5M copies, based on its 37k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 912k–1.5M; $12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut; from 37k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tales of ARISE and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tales of ARISE's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–3.2M

best case 27.3M (The Forest)

Games like Tales of ARISE

A typical game among these

≈ 2.9M–3.2M copies

≈ $12.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut

from ~86k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.8M–33.7M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 15k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 20k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Anime (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $40.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
OMORI 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	89k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Story Rich
Yakuza 0 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.4M–3.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	78k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichAction
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M 8.0x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Persona 4 Golden 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.0M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	88k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPGGreat Soundtrack
Mirror 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut	$1.99	84k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Sexual ContentNudity
Persona 5 Royal 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	141k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPG Story Rich
NieR:Automata™ 2017	Est. copies ≈ 5.3M–8.6M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $58.2M–$156.5M after Steam's cut $105.8M–$240.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	154k reviews Very Positive	Great SoundtrackStory Rich
MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.1M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	127k reviews Very Positive	ActionHunting