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How many copies did Path to Mnemosyne sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 8k–12k
$21k–$56k after Steam's cut $38k–$87k before Steam's cut
from 251 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Path to Mnemosyne and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Path to Mnemosyne's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–12.5M
best case 38.8M (Portal 2)
Games like Path to Mnemosyne

A typical game among these

≈ 4.4M–12.5M copies

≈ $48.6M–$114.9M after Steam's cut

from ~156k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (6 of 8) and Third Person (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + Puzzle, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Platformer + Dark Humor + Funny; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
Tomb Raider Game of the Year
2013
Est. copies
≈ 17.1M–27.8M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut $171.0M–$388.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
271k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction
Rise of the Tomb Raider™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$53.7M–$144.2M after Steam's cut $97.5M–$221.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
156k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.6M–$79.6M after Steam's cut $53.8M–$122.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
89k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction
Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Resident Evil 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$70.9M–$190.7M after Steam's cut $129.0M–$293.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
224k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
A Plague Tale: Innocence
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$23.1M–$62.1M after Steam's cut $42.0M–$95.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
73k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichAdventure

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