How much revenue did Atomfall make?

$2.0M–$5.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Atomfall sell?

Q: How many copies did Atomfall sell?

147k to 238k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 147k–238k; $2.0M–$5.4M after Steam's cut $3.7M–$8.3M before Steam's cut; from 6k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Atomfall and predicted how it would do from its 7 similar games. Every figure here, including Atomfall's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 18.2M–26.6M

best case 27.5M (Fallout 4)

Games like Atomfall

A typical game among these

≈ 18.2M–26.6M copies

≈ $85.6M–$205.8M after Steam's cut

from ~290k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 7 similar games are hits.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 21.0M–34.1M copies, ≈ $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (7 of 7) and First-Person (6 of 7).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2009 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition (2009) 2009	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M too small to compare SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $13.8M–$37.2M after Steam's cut $25.2M–$57.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGOpen World
Fallout: New Vegas 2010	Est. copies ≈ 16.6M–26.9M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	262k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition Deluxe (2009) 2009	Est. copies ≈ 0 too small to compare SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $0 after Steam's cut $0 before Steam's cut	$19.99	0 reviews No user reviews	RPGOpen World
Fallout 4 2015	Est. copies ≈ 21.0M–34.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	429k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Far Cry® 4 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.2M–6.8M too small to compare SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $34.3M–$92.1M after Steam's cut $62.3M–$141.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	74k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.7M–9.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.7M–$125.6M after Steam's cut $84.9M–$193.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	186k reviews Very Positive	MedievalRPG
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 2011	Est. copies ≈ 20.1M–32.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $110.4M–$296.9M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	318k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG